Passos, Dario (2012), "EVOLUTION OF SOLAR PARAMETERS SINCE 1750 BASED ON A TRUNCATED DYNAMO
MODEL", ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, 744, 2.
Abstract: We use a truncated dynamo model and observations of the sunspot number
to infer cycle-to-cycle variations of several dynamo parameters. A
correlation study between model parameters and solar cycle observables
(period, amplitude, and rising time) is done, and our results are
compared with the results of other authors. Using the strongest
correlations found, we determined a series of relationships that can be
used for prediction purposes. This technique indicates that solar cycle
24 will have a sunspot maximum of approximately 84 around June of 2013.
In the context of the used model, most of the variability found in the
solar cycle can be attributed to changes in the strength of the
meridional circulation. The results also point to a common origin for
the source of variation of the meridional flow and differential rotation
and/or the alpha-effect.